Zero Population?

In Douglas Stewart and Lex de Azevedo's musical, Saturday's Warrior, lyrics to their song, Zero Population, go something like this: "Every day the world is getting smaller by far / Bursting at the seams / What can we do? / Zero population is the answer my friend / Without it the rest of us are doomed!" But my question is, is zero population really the answer? In 1968 Bob R. Ehrlich wrote a book called The Population Bomb which became widely popular in the 1970's. His main argument was that a mass starvation would occur within the next decade or two due to overpopulation. He believed the world wouldn't be able to sustain that many people. So, was Ehrlich correct? I'm not so sure. In 1969, the total human population was around 3.61 billion people. Today there are more than 7 billion people in the world and research says that number will continue to rise.

Even though Ehrlich's calculations were incorrect, the impact his book had on society was widespread. Many took his words as fact and people became afraid of overpopulation and took measures to prevent it. In many people's minds, zero population was the answer. As a result, less and less people wanted to have kids and the average number of children born over the lifetime of the average woman, which is what we called fertility rate, decreased. But zero population didn't work like people thought it would. Despite the decrease in fertility rate, the population continued to grow. But why is that?

Over the past few centuries, as medicinal research has improved, there has been an increase in lifespan. People now live longer than in the past. So even though the fertility rate is continuously decreasing, the population is rising because people aren't dying as often. This isn’t the first time in history fertility rates have dropped however.

Fertility rates first fell because nations and people began to prosper. During the Industrial Revolution, after child labor laws were introduced, children ceased to be an economic asset and people stopped having as many children. They stopped becoming valuable economic commodities, and became expensive commodities. Urban areas also weren’t friendly to children which made it hard on parents to raise multiple children at a time. Another reason fertility began to decline is because of the Women’s Revolution. This changed the roles of women. More women started working and getting a better education and careers and spent less time in the home. The Sexual Revolution changed the behavior of sex, marriage, and family. It separated sex from reproduction due to the development of the birth control pill. Because of that separation, more people wanted to enjoy the pleasures of sex without the responsibility of children. The Divorce Revolution also impacted fertility rates. In the 1960’s there were new state laws called no-fault divorces that were enacted which increased divorce rates by at least 20%. Children make divorces harder than they already are and as a result many people stopped having as many children to prevent further pain and heartache during divorce. As we can see, fertility rates have long been decreasing but what does this decrease affect exactly?

Well for starters, fertility rates affect human capital. Human Capital is the knowledge and skills people have. It is the capacity a child acquires to be competent out in the marketplace. The more they learn the more valuable they are. Human Capital is the foundation of modern economies and it’s hard to sustain economic growth without human capital increases. A decrease in fertility rates means there aren’t as many people with human capital to give. Without human capital, economic growth will decrease which will affect the standard of living across the nation.

The biggest impact on decreasing fertility rates however is on the family. The overarching tendency credited with the overall fertility trends is the concept of individualism. People focus more on themselves and consumption and put less emphasis on children and family. Individualism has taken over society and driven them toward selfish tendencies. But where do these selfish tendencies lead us? Society is based on the family unit, but selfishness destroys that unit. Families are being destroyed and most people haven’t even noticed! But what are we doing about it? What can we do about it? What will you do about it?